Guaranteed bounds for posterior inference in universal probabilistic programming
Fri 17 Jun 2022 01:50 - 02:10 at Toucan - Numbers
We propose a new method to approximate the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs by means of computing guaranteed bounds. The starting point of our work is an interval-based trace semantics for a recursive, higher-order probabilistic programming language with continuous distributions. Taking the form of (super-/subadditive) measures, these lower/upper bounds are non-stochastic and provably correct: using the semantics, we prove that the actual posterior of a given program is sandwiched between the lower and upper bounds (soundness); moreover the bounds converge to the posterior (completeness). As a practical and sound approximation, we introduce a weight-aware interval type system, which automatically infers interval bounds on not just the return value but also weight of program executions, simultaneously. We have built a tool implementation, called GuBPI, which automatically computes these posterior lower/upper bounds. Our evaluation on examples from the literature shows that the bounds are useful, and can even be used to recognise wrong outputs from stochastic posterior inference procedures.
Thu 16 JunDisplayed time zone: Pacific Time (US & Canada) change
13:30 - 14:50 | |||
13:30 20mTalk | Choosing Mathematical Function Implementations for Speed and Accuracy PLDI DOI | ||
13:50 20mTalk | Guaranteed bounds for posterior inference in universal probabilistic programming PLDI Raven Beutner CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security, Germany, C.-H. Luke Ong University of Oxford, Fabian Zaiser University of Oxford DOI Pre-print | ||
14:10 20mTalk | Progressive Polynomial Approximations for Fast Correctly Rounded Math Libraries PLDI Mridul Aanjaneya Rutgers University, Jay P. Lim Yale University, Santosh Nagarakatte Rutgers University Link to publication DOI Pre-print | ||
14:30 20mTalk | Karp: A Language for NP Reductions PLDI Chenhao Zhang Northwestern University, Jason D. Hartline Northwestern University, Christos Dimoulas PLT @ Northwestern University DOI |
Fri 17 JunDisplayed time zone: Pacific Time (US & Canada) change
01:30 - 02:50 | |||
01:30 20mTalk | Choosing Mathematical Function Implementations for Speed and Accuracy PLDI DOI | ||
01:50 20mTalk | Guaranteed bounds for posterior inference in universal probabilistic programming PLDI Raven Beutner CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security, Germany, C.-H. Luke Ong University of Oxford, Fabian Zaiser University of Oxford DOI Pre-print | ||
02:10 20mTalk | Progressive Polynomial Approximations for Fast Correctly Rounded Math Libraries PLDI Mridul Aanjaneya Rutgers University, Jay P. Lim Yale University, Santosh Nagarakatte Rutgers University Link to publication DOI Pre-print | ||
02:30 20mTalk | Karp: A Language for NP Reductions PLDI Chenhao Zhang Northwestern University, Jason D. Hartline Northwestern University, Christos Dimoulas PLT @ Northwestern University DOI |