Abstract Probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write down conditional probability distributions that represent statistical and machine learning models as programs that use observe statements. These programs are run by accumulating likelihood at each observe statement, and using the likelihood to steer random choices and weigh results with inference algorithms such as importance sampling or MCMC. We argue that naive likelihood accumulation does not give desirable semantics and leads to paradoxes when an observe statement is used to condition on a measure-zero event, particularly when the observe statement is executed conditionally on random data. We show that the paradoxes disappear if we explicitly model measure-zero events as a limit of positive measure events, and that we can execute these type of probabilistic programs by accumulating infinitesimal probabilities rather than probability densities. We believe that our extension improves probabilistic programming languages as an executable notation for probability distributions by making it more well-behaved and more expressive, at the cost of the programmer having to be explicit about which limit is intended when conditioning on an event of measure zero.
Fri 17 JunDisplayed time zone: Pacific Time (US & Canada) change
10:40 - 12:00 | |||
10:40 20mTalk | (OOPSLA 2020) Scaling Exact Inference for Discrete Probabilistic Programs SIGPLAN Track Steven Holtzen Northeastern University, Guy Van den Broeck University of California at Los Angeles, Todd Millstein University of California at Los Angeles | ||
11:00 20mTalk | (POPL 2021) A Pre-Expectation Calculus for Probabilistic Sensitivity SIGPLAN Track Alejandro Aguirre IMDEA Software Institute and T.U. of Madrid (UPM), Gilles Barthe MPI-SP, Germany / IMDEA Software Institute, Spain, Justin Hsu Cornell University, Benjamin Lucien Kaminski Saarland University and University College London, Joost-Pieter Katoen RWTH Aachen University, Christoph Matheja Technical University of Denmark | ||
11:20 20mTalk | (PLDI 2021) On Probabilistic Termination of Functional Programs with Continuous Distributions SIGPLAN Track Raven Beutner CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security, Germany, C.-H. Luke Ong University of Oxford | ||
11:40 20mTalk | (POPL 2021) Paradoxes of probabilistic programming SIGPLAN Track Jules Jacobs Radboud University |